You would not fault executives at Basilea Pharmaceutica for crossing their fingers in the hope their string of bad luck may be over. A European advisory committee is due to report soon on the clinical practices of the trials supporting the skin-infection treatment ceftobiprole (Zevtera) run by Johnson & Johnson, Basilea’s development and marketing partner.

A positive verdict on the antibiotic seems highly unlikely given the strength of the FDA's recent rejection of the drug (Basilea weakened by FDA rejection, January 4, 2010). While a negative opinion should only prompt a modest share price decline, the outcome could prove an important factor in the ongoing arbitration between the two companies and enhance the risk that J&J will try and back out of the collaboration. Should this occur a potential silver lining for Basilea could emerge in a decent pay-off from J&J.