Much has been written about the so-called “patent cliff” that the pharma industry faces over the next few years, but often only in isolated instances or within the context of a specific company. Drawing on historic and forecast data from EvaluatePharma, EP Vantage provides unique analysis and insight into the extent the cliff will impact the industry as a whole over the next five years (see tables below).

Of total pharmaceutical sales in 2008 of $643.6bn, a staggering 30% were derived from patented products which are “at risk” from generic competition within five years, almost double the percentage at risk in 2000 of 17%. Whilst the industry has already started its slide, the patent cliff becomes seriously precipitous in 2010 when 9%, or $57.5bn, of total market sales are expected to lose patent protection within the space of 12 months. The analysis also neatly illustrates one of the key drivers behind the Pfizer-Wyeth merger.